#6 The butterfly effect
Chaos theory, consistency and incentives
This Week’s Brew
Have you ever heard of the butterfly effect?
The idea goes that a butterfly flapping its wings in Africa is the cause of a hurricane in America.
This is also known as Chaos theory. Where systems or events appear to be random and unrelated but are actually linked by underlying patterns and rules.
I read a book on this called Fluke (author Brian Klass) and one of the opening stories stuck with me.
The author writes about the atomic bombs that were dropped in Japan in WW2.
As you likely know the bombs were dropped on two locations, Hiroshima and Nagasaki. What you probably didn’t know was neither of these places were the initial target.
The main target was supposed to be Kyoto. Kyoto was a hub of wartime factories, where hundreds of aircraft engines could be churned out each month.
The back up targets were Yokohama, Kokura and Hiroshima.
So why did Kyoto avoid get hit on May 10th 1945?
We need to go back to 1926, when Mr and Mrs Stimson checked into their hotel in Kyoto. They spent 6 days in this city and fell in love with the place. The culture, the temples, the heritage, it stole their hearts.
Jump back to 1945 and who is the man tasked with presenting the targets to Mr President Truman? The secretary of war, Mr Henry Stimson.
When he saw Kyoto was the main target, he made it his mission to ensure that no bomb was dropped on that city.
Because of this, the back up list was then required and a fourth city was added, Nagasaki.
The first bomb was dropped on Hiroshima instead of Kyoto.
The second was due to be dropped on Kokura, except cloud cover was causing an issue. The pilots decided to attack a secondary target but again clouds were distorting any clear sight of ground.
Deciding to make one last pass before returning to base, the clouds parted and that second bomb was dropped on the secondary target, Nagasaki.
In total, 220,000 lives were lost in 2 cities that in different circumstances wouldn’t have even been targets.
It got me thinking about chaos theory and events in my life.
I now have an amazing girlfriend who is beautiful and has the kindest heart. But how did we meet and what events bought us together?
We met at yoga studio where we were chatting before a class. I then matched with her hinge, a dating app.
I only joined that yoga studio after going to a yoga class whilst on a trip to Bali. It made me remember how much I enjoyed yoga when it used to be part of my exercise routine and how good it made my body feel.
I was only in Bali after completing a period of intense weekly therapy sessions, where I learned to understand myself, build self-trust and become familiar with what a healthy relationship is built from.
The therapy only happened due to a painful break up with a girl I was seeing from work (note 1, do not date people from your office). This made me realise something wasn’t right with the way I managed relationships, and I needed to speak to someone who was a professional.
I only met this girl due to changing jobs earlier that year. This change was due to the company culture changing dramatically and my manager leaving. I worked out pretty quickly my new boss was someone who I wouldn’t have got on with (note 2, people work for people, if you don’t respect or admire the person you work for, you should probably find a new role) so leaving was my best option.
The role at that company came about by complete chance when a recruiter sent me a DM on LinkedIn. I didn’t even get the role first time round as I lacked experience. During covid, the company called me back and said they made a mistake and if I was still interested the role was mine.
Would I have met my current girlfriend without those events unfolding as they did? Maybe. What is certain is I wouldn’t have been the person I am now so we may not have connected as deeply.
This made me think about how we put so much time and pressure on our plans and decisions but fail to see how much chance and luck plays in events leading us to where we are now.
Steve Jobs said you don’t get to connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them when looking back.
This shouldn’t stop us taking agency and making decisions. It should free us to know that what we are facing now is leading us to something in the future we can’t yet see.
Espresso Insights
Give people compliments. It makes them feel great for receiving them and you get to feel good for giving them
Consistency over intensity. Play the long game
“Everything that needs to be said has already been said… but since no one was listening, everything must be said again” Andre Gide
Sip Of Wisdom
*Incentives*
Incentives drive behaviour.
Towards the end of the 18th century, Britain started sending prisoners to Australia by boat. (I’m not sure how this was a punishment… better weather, great beaches, bbqs everyday).
Between 1790 and 1792, 12% of prisoners died during the trips.
On one boat, 37% of them didn’t make it to Australia.
The government knew they had to do something to change this, so they created incentives for the captains.
They decided they would pay the captains for each prisoner that made it off the boat in Australia alive, instead of each trip they took. Prisoners were now worth more to captains alive then they were dead.
The result?
Prisoner deaths fell to almost zero.
In 1793, of the first 3 boats to make the trip there was a single prisoner death.
The incentives in place now aligned the self interest of the captains with the interest of the government.
I’ve seen similar examples of this in the workplace.
At 2 separate companies, I’ve witnessed the power of aligning incentives and what happens when there is a lack of incentives.
One business decided to run a black Friday offer to boost sales and end of quarter numbers. They put in place an incentive for the sales team, increasing commission for deals closed on black Friday.
The result? Most of the sales team brought deals forward, and one sales rep closed out his entire pipeline!
The business smashed their sales target, and the sales team got well paid. Both interests were aligned. Win win.
In another business, they were struggling with hitting their sales numbers every month due to deals slipping and not being closed out. Why? There was no commission structure.
The sales reps were paid the same every month, whether they closed a £1m deal or it slipped into the next month and they closed nothing. Except their laptops.
Here their interests were not aligned and the result should not be a surprise. It’s just human nature.
I am currently using this tool but in a slightly different way.
Cadburys chocolate fingers. If I open a box, chances are high I will eat the lot. So I’ve made a deal with my sister to help me eliminate this habit.
If I eat a box, I must pay her £50. It’s worked… so far.
Where could you use incentives to drive your behaviour?
Your Round
What is your favourite quote and what does it mean to you?
Really interested to hear these, please leave a comment below
Until next time,
Chris
Refill Your Cup
The legendary unkillable solider - link
References
Brain Klass Fluke - link
Love this post...its really struck a chord with me!!!
Consistency over intensity. Play the long game - I need to use this in the gym, I have picked up injuries for training intensity, witch has now caused me unable to go to the gym and start a rehab program.